CONCEDING an average of five less points per game while scoring ten points more over the course of the three games played to date, the statistics (and league standings) suggest that Mayo will be that bit too strong for winless Fermanagh when the sides clash at Clones.

Already beaten by Kerry, Limerick and Tyrone, and with games against Dublin, Cork and Donegal to follow next Sunday’s contest, relegation is looming large for the Ernesiders, their lack of a home ground for the duration of the 2007 league campaign also sure to hinder their survival prospects.

However, beware of the wounded animal, and if there’s one team that Fermanagh have been well able to give a game to in recent times, it’s Mayo.

The green and red, then on a roll and eager to impress the new manager Mickey Moran, may have won last season’s league encounter in Castlebar with a fair degree of ease, but who’ll ever forget the epic All-Ireland semi-final meetings of 2004 or the 2003 defeat of John Maughan’s team on a rainy summer’s evening in Sligo?

Still, it would still be considered one of the weekend’s surprise results should Mayo fail to record their third win in four games. True, John O’Mahony may not have got the desired performance from his team when they struggled to a six points victory against Limerick last Sunday, but if it’s the sign of a good team that can play badly and win, then there’s reason that Mayo supporters can travel north east in confidence.

After all, their team is preparing to face an outfit that managed to score just eight points against Kerry last time out. The kingdom (already defeated by Mayo) led by eight points at half-time!

Also, Limerick, who could manage only seven points against Mayo, bagged 2-10 against Fermanagh in their five points win.

Given the injuries picked up by David Brady and Kevin O’Neill in Mayo’s most recent win, not to mention the big names that O’Mahony chose to leave on the bench that day, there will be much interest in what selection the Ballaghaderreen clubman picks for battle.

Under normal circumstances he would prefer to leave well alone in defence. It was the one department that remained on top for the majority of the Treaty test and relative newcomers to the panel like Enda Devenney, James Kilcullen and goalkeeper Kenneth O’Malley can only benefit from added experience. However, Devenney picked up an injury at training last Saturday morning and is rated extremely doubtful for next Sunday.

In the absence of David Brady and Ronan McGarrity, who has revealed that he is to undergo tests for testicular cancer, Pat Harte would seem an automatic choice to regain his starting berth at midfield but it remains to be seen whether O’Mahony will choose to experiment by placing David Heaney at centre-field or, as he did in the recent challenge against Clare, opt for James Nallen. Either, or, could also replace Devenney in defence should he fail to regain full fitness.

In attack, there is the possibility that Aidan Campbell could gain another run-out, this time on the wing given Kevin O’Neill’s loss from the half-forward line, with either Conor Mortimer or Austin O’Malley being recalled to the full-forward department.

But amidst any talking up of Mayo’s chances, it should not be forgotten that Fermanagh boss Charlie Mulgrew has some gifted players to call upon.

Barry Owens has been one of the country’s outstanding fullbacks for the past three seasons, winning All Star awards in ’04 and ’06, while Martin McGrath was also honoured in the All Stars scheme three years ago for his midfield heroics in the Ulster side’s memorable march to the last four of the All-Ireland series. Both men are set to feature on Sunday, as is the experienced Tom Brewster. Combine their talents with those of defender Niall Bogue, midfielder James Sherry and tricky forwards Ciaran O’Reilly, Eamon Maguire and Mark Little, and it wouldn’t be hard to state a winning case for the ‘home’ team - if they could finally find their form.

VERDICT MAYO

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